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WORLD CUP | Argentina v France Preview & Prediction

 


PREVIEW

Messi, in likely his last World Cup match, will set the outright record for finals appearances (26) as he gets his second shot at glory.
The Argentina captain was part of the team defeated 1-0 by Germany in the final eight years ago. Their title tilt at Russia 2018 then ended in the last 16, beaten by France.
But Messi has guided his side through to kickoff at the Lusail Stadium showpiece this time, where France are again their opponents.
France’s head to head against Argentina isn’t that pretty, having won only three of 12 meetings against them in all competitions and losing two of three World Cup clashes, but that epic 4-3 victory at the previous World Cup set Didier Deschamps’ men on course for the title.
Indeed, Les Bleus have won seven World Cup knockout games in succession – two shy of Brazil’s record – as they look to become only the third side (after Brazil in 1962 and Italy in 1938) to successfully defend their title. Hugo Lloris could become the first player to captain a team to triumphs in consecutive finals, while Didier Deschamps could become the first coach to do so since Vittorio Pozzo oversaw both Italy successes in the 1930s.
Other omens are more positive for Argentina: the last time the two World Cup finalists had both lost earlier in the same campaign – Messi and Co. were stunned by Saudi Arabia, while France lost to Tunisia – the Albiceleste beat the Netherlands to the 1978 title. Cesar Luis Menotti, in charge of Argentina in 1978, was the last coach younger than Lionel Scaloni to lift the World Cup.
But it is the other Lionel who is understandably hogging the limelight.
Messi would be a popular winner just about everywhere – except in the country where he plays his club football with Paris Saint-Germain.

“We are the team of France in the final of the World Cup. We fight for our team, our country,” said Ousmane Dembele of the possibility of he and his team-mates playing the role of party poopers.

“All the players and the French want to win the World Cup and bring back a third star. It would be good for his career if Messi won the World Cup, but we also want to win the World Cup.

“Every football player wants to win the World Cup. He has had a great career and he lacks this trophy, but we represent our country. We want to win the World Cup. I hope France will win this World Cup.”

Dembele also spoke of the importance of France keeping the ball away from Argentina’s “exceptional” talisman, someone he knows well from Messi’s time at Barcelona.

Griezmann has created more chances (21) with a higher expected assists value (3.5) than any other player at this World Cup. The midfield delivered two crucial assists in France’s quarter-final win over England and put in an incredible defensive shift against Morocco in the semi-final. He has been vital to France’s tournament-leading non-penalty expected goals total of 11.9, although Argentina have allowed just 5.7 shots worth 0.4 xG on average in Qatar – two 2022 lows – as a backline marshalled by the likes of Cristian Romero and Lisandro MartΓ­nez has proven combative and strong.



It is very, very nearly too close to call. Just 0.1% splits the two teams, according to our prediction model, which probably matches the public perception of the fixture.
The supercomputer gives Argentina the slightest of edges at 35.1%, with France rated at 35.0%. With that in mind, do not discount extra time and penalties, with the draw considered a similarly strong 29.9% shot.

✏️ MY TIPS ✏️



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